| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | South Florida | 7-34 | 1731.5 | -70.6 | 1660.9 | 87.1% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | W | Eastern Washington | 51-14 | 1660.9 | +0.0 | 1660.9 | 71.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Air Force | 49-37 | 1660.9 | +19.0 | 1679.9 | 82.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | App State | 47-14 | 1679.9 | +12.6 | 1692.5 | 80.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 7-28 | 1692.5 | -19.9 | 1672.6 | 29.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | New Mexico | 41-25 | 1672.6 | +9.0 | 1681.6 | 86.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | UNLV | 56-31 | 1681.6 | +41.8 | 1723.4 | 43.0% |
| 10 | Oct 24 2025 | W | Nevada | 24-3 | 1723.4 | +2.5 | 1725.9 | 97.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Fresno State | 7-30 | 1725.9 | -76.6 | 1649.3 | 87.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | San Diego State | 7-17 | 1649.3 | -61.0 | 1588.3 | 77.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Colorado State | 49-21 | 1588.3 | +7.9 | 1596.2 | 87.7% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Utah State | 25-24 | 1596.2 | +26.5 | 1622.7 | 75.2% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | UNLV | 38-21 | 1622.7 | +40.7 | 1663.4 | 44.2% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | L | Washington | 10-38 | 1663.4 | -36.0 | 1627.4 | 42.3% |